European gas futures jumped 20%, the biggest jump since March amid signs of a tighter liquefied natural gas market and potentially stronger Asian demand for the fuel.
Benchmark month-ahead Dutch futures rose as much as 20% to €28.46 a megawatt-hour after last week skidding to the lowest level in two years. The UK equivalent increased by more than 21%.
The region is still finding its footing after a historic energy crisis exacerbated by severe supply cuts from Russia in the wake of its war in Ukraine. Europe has amassed higher-than-usual inventories, due to a relatively mild winter, record imports of LNG and tepid demand.
Still, traders are mindful of persistent risks, including the possibility of even lower Russian supplies and competition with Asia for LNG. US shipments of the fuel — vital for Europe’s energy security — are currently more profitable to Asia in July, August and September, according to BloombergNEF.
There’s also a link to the oil market. Saudi Arabia on Sunday agreed to curb crude supply further in July to help shore up sagging oil prices. Long-term LNG contracts are often linked to oil, meaning buyers may prefer spot shipments for now.
Read More: Saudi Oil Cut May Put a Floor Under Natural Gas Prices
“The uptrend in European gas following the jolt in oil prices is a sign that prices may escalate,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Patricio Alvarez. “So far, weak demand has kept gas benchmarks at bay, likely masking the region’s thinning supply buffer ahead of next winter and potential recovery in Asian LNG demand in the second half.”
--With assistance from Anna Shiryaevskaya.
