China’s central bank will probably accelerate its monetary easing into next year with several cuts to interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio, according to new forecasts from Barclays Plc.
The bank expects a 10 basis-point reduction in policy rates in every quarter from the third quarter of 2023 through to the first quarter of 2024, economists including Jian Chang wrote in a note dated Tuesday.
Barclays expects the People’s Bank of China to also reduce the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis-points each in the third quarter of this year and first three months of next year to boost credit expansion. The forecasts for the timing of the RRR cuts are based on the fact that more medium-term lending facility loans will mature beginning in August and liquidity tends to tighten during the Chinese New Year holiday.
The new projections came after the PBOC lowered short-term interest rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday. Barclays had previously predicted a 10 basis-point reduction in policy rates this week.
See: China Shifts to Stimulus Mode With Xi’s Options Dwindling
For mortgage rates, the bank’s economists said their base case is for a reduction of 60-80 basis points for both existing and new home loans in the next nine months. Other property sector easing measures may include a lower down-payment ratio for second-time home buyers, further loosening of purchase restrictions in first- and second-tier cities, and more funding support to developers from state policy banks to ensure housing projects are delivered.
Barclays said there’s limited room for major fiscal stimulus due to the central government’s conservative budget and deteriorating local government finances.
