Asian shares are poised to open broadly higher, following the lead from Wall Street after dovish comments on rates from Federal Reserve officials. Oil and gold climbed on the fallout from Hamas’ attack on Israel.
Futures in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia were higher Tuesday, after the S&P 500 erased losses as Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said officials are in a position to “proceed carefully” following the recent rise in Treasury yields. Earlier, Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the recent surge in long-term US bond rates may mean less need for the central bank to tighten again.
At the end of last week, traders had boosted bets on another Fed hike this year as data showed US employment unexpectedly surged in September. That narrative was switched on Monday as central bank officials damped down speculation of another rate increase in 2023.
“The script has changed,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The odds for another tightening have dropped dramatically since Friday.”
Oil climbed after Hamas’ attack on Israel raised fears of a wider conflict that could constrain energy supplies, while gold had its biggest one-day gain since May on haven buying in the wake of the fighting. The dollar edged lower. Treasury futures climbed, with the cash market closed for Columbus Day.
In Asia, data Monday showed daily new-home sales during the eight-day Golden Week holiday declined 17% from last year, showing there’s no quick fix for a record housing-market slump that’s stifling economic growth and worsening a debt crisis among developers.
Read: Wall Street’s Narrative Gets Lost in World of Hurt: Surveillance
Energy companies led gains in the S&P 500 as US crude futures briefly topped $87 a barrel. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. added over 2.7%. Defense companies rallied, with Northrop Grumman Corp. up the most since March 2020 and Lockheed Martin Corp. gaining 8.9%. American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. fell more than 4%.
Israeli companies Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. slipped in US trading. The shekel dropped even after the central bank unveiled a $45 billion support program. Gas prices in Europe soared.
Read: Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week
The latest Middle East conflict comes at a time of ongoing geopolitical concerns, with markets also facing a period of moderating global economic growth, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management
“Against this backdrop, we continue to prefer fixed income to equities,” Marcelli noted. “We see a better risk-reward profile for fixed income, and we recommend investors consider buying high-quality bonds in the 5-10-year maturity range. We foresee further cooling in inflation and slower global growth.”
The next risk to US stocks could come from fiscal policy constraints at a time when the Fed is still fighting high inflation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. The strategist — among the most prominent bearish voices on Wall Street — said while the US government narrowly avoided a shutdown last week, “the lack of a resilient long-term structure that supports fiscal discipline” could have an impact on financial markets.
Read: JPMorgan, Citi Gird For Recession Risk: US Earnings Week Ahead
Key events this week:
- Bank of England releases minutes of financial policy meeting, Tuesday
- IMF issues its latest world economic outlook, Tuesday
- US wholesale inventories, Tuesday
- Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly speak at separate events, Tuesday
- Germany CPI, Wednesday
- NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels, Wednesday
- Russia Energy Week in Moscow, with officials from OPEC members and others, Wednesday
- US PPI, Wednesday
- Minutes of Fed’s September policy meeting, Wednesday
- Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Raphael Bostic speak at separate events, Wednesday
- Japan machinery orders, PPI, Thursday
- Bank of Japan’s Asahi Noguchi speaks, Thursday
- UK industrial production, Thursday
- US initial jobless claims, CPI, Thursday
- European Central Bank publishes account of September policy meeting, Thursday
- Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
- China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
- Eurozone industrial production, Friday
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock results as the quarterly earnings season kicks off, Friday
- G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet as part of IMF gathering, Friday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speak on IMF panel, Friday
- Fed’s Patrick Harker speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets at 7.23 a.m Tokyo time:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 0.6%
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
- Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.8%
- Hang Seng futures rose 0.5%
- S&P/ASX 200 futures advanced 0.4%
Currencies
- The euro was little changed at $1.0570
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2923 per dollar
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.40 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6412
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin climbed 0.1% to $27,614.63
- Ether rose 0.3% to $1,580.8
Bonds
- Australia’s 10-year yield fell nine basis points to 4.43%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $86.41 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed at $1,861.15 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
