Asian stocks fell after a selloff on Wall Street while Treasury yields stabilized after further upward pressure as traders await Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on the interest-rate outlook.
Equity markets in Japan, Australia, South Korea and China all slipped with declines prominent in Hong Kong-listed technology stocks, echoing heavy selling in US tech shares on Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%, its worst day in three weeks. A drop of more than 1% for the S&P 500 almost wiped out its weekly gain. Futures contracts for the two US benchmarks were little changed in Asian trading.
Treasuries were largely flat after two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, climbed above 5% Thursday, providing support for the US dollar. The greenback advanced further against its G-10 peers. Australia and New Zealand bond yields were slightly higher in Asian trading.
The yen weakened beyond 146 per dollar for the first time since Tuesday after inflation data for Tokyo came in slightly below forecasts.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the annual gathering of top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — where Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech at 10:05 a.m. Washington time Friday. The Fed chief will likely use his platform to outline how officials will assess whether rates should go higher and determine when it’s time to start cutting them.
In the run-up to Powell’s address, Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins told Yahoo! Finance that rate increases may be necessary, adding that she wasn’t prepared to signal the peak point. Meantime, her Philadelphia counterpart Patrick Harker sees interest rates on hold for the rest of this year, and thinks policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening, telling CNBC that “we’ve probably done enough.”
Speaking earlier in an interview on Bloomberg Television, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay plans for the Fed to wrap up interest-rate increases.
Read More: Fed Officials See Rates Close to Peak, Differ on How Close
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 78% of investors expect Powell to focus on data dependency. The next most-popular choice was financial conditions, which received 12% of votes. Only 21% of investors expect the market reaction to be “risk-off”, while 43% bet it will be mixed or negligible and 37% predict a “risk-on” response.
“If Powell focuses on data dependency, that ought to help 10-year yields stabilize,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of the New York-based research firm. That would also provide a “tailwind” to the growth-versus-value trade, he noted.
‘Goldilocks’ Rate
Another topic that has surfaced on Wall Street over the past few days is whether Powell will address the abstract, almost elusive number that many refer to as r-star. That’s a sort of “goldilocks” rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Bill Dudley, previously the New York Fed chief, are among those who have said markets are still underestimating the so-called neutral interest-rate. Any hint at an upward revision would likely ripple across global markets, forcing a reevaluation on where the fair value for Treasury yields is likely to land.
Yet Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI said Powell will likely focus on the short-to-medium-term outlook — and avoid making a call on the r-star.
“Expect a balanced assessment with no abrupt hawkishness, but no ‘Mission Accomplished’,” Guha added. “The Fed has not come this far to let inflation slip out of its grasp.”
In commodities, oil was headed for a second weekly decline. European natural gas tumbled as strike fears in Australia eased, while gold and copper were set to notch their first weekly gains. Meanwhile, iron ore was headed for a third weekly advance amid increasing speculation Chinese steel mills will ramp up output.
Key events this week:
- US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10:50 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%
- Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
- Japan’s Topix fell 0.9%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1%
- The Shanghai Composite fell 0.4%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.1%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
- The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0789
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 146.17 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2864 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6416
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $26,119.73
- Ether rose 0.5% to $1,657.43
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.24%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.15%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $79.40 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Rob Verdonck.
