Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is unlikely to call an election next month, but will probably delay it until the autumn to give him time to patch up a fight with his junior coalition partner, according to the leader of the upstart opposition Japan Innovation Party.
“It’s a cold war,” Nobuyuki Baba said in an interview at his offices, referring to the spat between the two ruling parties, which was triggered by a fight over rights to field candidates in certain constituencies. “They don’t know what would happen if they held it now. It could be a great blow to the LDP.”
Speculation has been simmering that Kishida may opt for an election as soon as July, just as a recent rise in support for his cabinet seems to be petering out. However, holding it so soon would present an added risk for his Liberal Democratic Party after the dispute prompted junior coalition party Komeito to withdraw its support in Tokyo. Komeito is backed by a lay Buddhist group with the capacity to turn out millions of votes nationwide.
A decision to call an election would depend on many factors, Kishida told a news conference Tuesday evening, in comments that stoked speculation of a vote coming soon.
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Baba’s party will seek to become the biggest opposition force at the election, building on an anti-tax hike stance that’s won it a powerful position in Osaka, he said. If the JIP, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, or Ishin for short, succeeds in taking over from the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party as the largest opposition group, it could nudge government policy in new directions.
“We want to create a mood where people think the Innovation Party would be good as a governing party,” Baba said. His priorities include making education free of charge and revising the pacifist constitution, which has been unchanged since the post-World War II US occupation.
Ishin’s wide assortment of lawmakers and willingness to change policy stance have made it increasingly difficult to define it as either left or right-wing. It has won support by chipping away at pay and benefits for politicians and bureaucrats.
The party took a conservative stance on a bill promoting LGBTQ understanding that’s currently working its way through parliament and seeks to change the pacifist Article Nine of the Constitution. Yet, Baba said he is interested in introducing a basic income policy to resolve problems with Japan’s creaking social security system. Ishin has moved away from its previous anti-nuclear power stance because of rising electricity prices.
Baba’s party has been building momentum beyond its power base of Osaka — winning local assembly seats in the bulk of Japan’s 47 prefectures in local elections in April. In the last nationwide general election to parliament’s powerful lower house in October 2021, the party quadrupled its seat numbers to 41 from 11 of the total 465. Polls show it is the second-most popular party, with the LDP still boasting the highest support.
Ishin is already prepped to field about 130 candidates and has a realistic chance of running about 150, he said. By eclipsing the current main opposition CDP, he aims to create a two-party democracy like in the US and UK, he added, saying a coalition with the LDP would probably see his party swallowed up.
Baba expects the party’s message on free education without new taxes to resonate particularly in urban areas, including Tokyo. Ishin is close to achieving this in Osaka, and a similar model could be applied in other big cities, he said. It would mean politicians cutting their own expenditures, he said, including slashing the number of national lawmakers.
“It’s not just about money, but if politicians impose cuts on themselves, they will gain the sympathy of voters,” he said. “If the public see you have cut numbers and pay, and that the budget is still short, they will accept a small tax rise.”
By contrast with the many Japanese politicians who are graduates of elite universities, or come from political dynasties, Baba started his career after graduating high school at chain restaurant Royal Host before taking a job in a politician’s office.
“Those who have always been the elite don’t understand how the majority of people feel,” he said. “We need the power of both types — that makes for good politics.”
