Turkish banks’ shares surged the most in a month after Bank of America issued an across-the-board buy recommendation on major private-sector lenders, predicting they would benefit from the central bank’s pivot back to orthodox monetary policy.
The Borsa Istanbul Banks Index rose as much as 4.5%, before ceding some gains to trade 3.9% higher as of 11:48 a.m. in Istanbul. Akbank TAS and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS led the advance, with gains of 5.5% and 5.1% respectively. Turkey’s broader equity benchmark, meanwhile, was up 1.4%.
Bank of America analysts David Taranto and Ilija Novosselsky expect Turkish banks’ return on equity to surpass 30%. They also see a recovery in so-called core spreads — the difference between interest rates on loans and deposits — and an improved fee base to continue supporting revenues. Asset quality risk is “manageable” and valuations are attractive, the analysts wrote.
Read more: BofA Sees Attractive Returns on Turkish Bank Stocks
Since the appointment of Turkey’s new economy team in June, the central bank has raised policy rate to 40% from 8.5%. It’s also wound down a widely reviled rule forcing banks to buy government bonds as a penalty for lending at interest rates above certain limits or falling short of business loan targets.
However, while Bank of America has a bullish view and higher targets for private lenders, it has an underperform rating on state-run Halk Bankasi AS and Vakiflar Bankasi TAO, citing lower profitability.
Its upbeat tone also contrasts with Citi, which cut its recommendation for Turkish banks earlier in November, predicting the higher-rate environment to negatively impact loan growth and quality.
