Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis’s Iowa appearances Friday mark one of the most climactic moments of the early presidential cycle as the former tries to extend momentum for an unprecedented White House comeback and the latter strives to steady an underperforming campaign.
The two are slated to speak at the Lincoln Dinner in Des Moines, a showcase event for Iowa Republicans and the first time the candidates will be at the same venue in the early GOP voting state since DeSantis entered the race. The dinner is a staple gathering for Republicans candidates, but all eyes are on Trump and DeSantis, who are well ahead of the pack in polls, but arrive facing unique challenges.
DeSantis is rebooting his campaign after a month that saw staffers fired, a leadership shake-up, financial filings revealing a cash-strapped operation, donor grumbling about spending and strategy, and sliding poll numbers. The Florida governor entered the race to fanfare, branded as an electable alternative to ex-president Trump, but has been diminished by unforced errors and a reluctance to directly confront the former president.
As part of the reset, the campaign will curb its spending and focus on early voting states. DeSantis is also preparing a major speech on the economy next week after pressure from donors to get on message. Friday’s event gives DeSantis a platform to stem bubbling doubts that he can supplant Trump.
For Trump, who leads DeSantis by 34 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, many of his challenges lie outside the primary field. Trump says he is expecting a third indictment, this time in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s probe into the 2020 election aftermath and the attack on the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
His polling and fundraising spiked after past indictments — in federal court over his handling of classified documents and in New York for allegedly paying hush money to an adult film star — as his base rallied behind him. But it’s uncertain whether a fresh indictment will provide a similar wave of momentum as the previous ones.
Trump must also mend ties with Iowa conservatives after he drew their ire by attacking Kim Reynolds, the state’s popular Republican governor, for remaining neutral in the primary. The reception he receives Friday will reveal whether the tensions will be a vulnerability to winning the state’s nomination.
Trump skipped an event for Iowa evangelicals earlier in July after his spat with Reynolds, a move other candidates characterized as a snub. Evangelicals helped Trump win in 2016 but he has blamed Republican messaging on the rollback of federal abortion rights for the party’s underwhelming 2022 midterm performance.
Trump also didn’t respond to a request from Reynolds’s office to be interviewed by her at the Iowa State Fair in August, according to Kollin Crompton, a spokesperson for the governor.
“President Trump looks forward to interacting with tens of thousands of Iowans at the fair in an open and unfiltered setting,” Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.
Iowa Republicans caucus in less than six months. A Fox Business poll of Iowa Republican caucus-goers released Sunday showed DeSantis trailing Trump 46% to 16%, with US Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina the only other candidate in double digits at 11%.
Earlier this week, DeSantis’s team folded to pressure from donors, elevating digital director Ethan Eilon to deputy campaign manager in a bid to rein in spending. Filings showed a bloated payroll without enough donations coming in to sustain operations.
DeSantis also faced calls to replace manager Generra Peck, a trusted aide who oversaw his landslide gubernatorial reelection. At a donor retreat last weekend, Peck acknowledged the campaign overspent and said the team would be a leaner operation moving forward, according to a person briefed on the session.
Whether DeSantis can refocus his campaign is unclear. In an interview Wednesday, he suggested he would consider long-shot Democratic contender and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Food and Drug Administration or Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The rest of the field will be vying for a breakout moment, capitalizing on the tumult in DeSantis’s camp and Trump’s fraught ties with Iowa conservatives.
The Fox Business poll showed entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in fourth place in Iowa with 6% support, followed by former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 4%. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and ex-New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each has 3% support, with no other candidate above 1%.
Pence, Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy, Burgum, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and former US Representative Will Hurd are also expected to speak at the dinner.
