Thai politician Pita Limjaroenrat will have his first shot at occupying the country’s top political office Thursday, when lawmakers gather to elect a new prime minister in a vote that will test whether conservative groups are willing to undermine the results of a May election.
Pita, 42, is the sole candidate running for the top job after his progressive Move Forward Party emerged as the biggest winner at the polls. Yet, his premiership isn’t a given.
He must first seek to win the votes of enough military-appointed senators to meet the threshold to become prime minister under electoral rules designed by the royalist establishment after a 2014 coup. On top of that, Pita must also faces a legal challenge that could see him disqualified as a lawmaker and his party disbanded over its push to amend the country’s royal defamation law.
His disqualification would risk unleashing more protests, extending a decades-long political battle between conservative and democratic forces that has hit Thailand’s troubled stocks, bonds and currency markets. The nation’s benchmark stock index is the worst performer in Asia this year, and the baht is the second-biggest decliner in Southeast Asia since the May 14 vote.
Still, the Harvard-educated politician said he wasn’t disheartened and vowed to put up a fight. With the backing of a coalition of eight pro-democracy parties that swept the general election, Pita has to ensure the support of an additional 65 lawmakers — either from elected conservative politicians or the military-appointed upper house Senate — to hit the 376-vote mark to secure the premiership.
Should he fail to win the required votes, lawmakers will then try again later. The next session is likely to be held on July 19.
“The country’s challenges are currently much heavier than the past five or six years. It needs a stable government that has the legitimacy to govern,” Pita told reporters on Wednesday after the Election Commission approached the Constitutional Court seeking his disqualification for alleged breach of poll rules. “I hope it hasn’t all been to thwart me politically. That would come with a heavy price to pay.”
READ: Thai PM Aspirant Risks Disqualification as Challenges Mount
The National Assembly is scheduled to convene its meeting at 9:30 a.m. in Bangkok, according to house speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha. Pita’s name is then expected to be nominated by Cholnan Srikaew, leader of Pheu Thai Party, the second-biggest outfit in Pita’s coalition that commands a total 312 lawmakers in the newly-elected 500-member House of Representatives.
Pita will then address lawmakers, including the 250-member Senate that will vote alongside the lower house, to make a case for his selection. Debates and speeches are expected to go on until about 5 p.m., before the house speaker calls on lawmakers in alphabetical order to vote, one by one. It may take a few hours for all 750 lawmakers to make their choices known.
Challenges have been mounting against the young front-runner, as his party’s vow to amend the lese majeste law, also known as Article 112 of the Thai criminal code that penalizes criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other royals, has riled the royalist establishment. The conservative parties outside of Pita’s coalition and many members of the senate, which is stacked with pro-royalist allies, have ruled out support for Pita for this reason, even if he’s backed by the majority of the elected lower house.
As regards the case brought against him by the poll panel, Pita has said he didn’t own the shares but managed them as part of an estate left behind by his father, and added that the shares have recently been transferred to a family member to avoid a plot to thwart his premiership bid.
READ: Latest Hurdle for Thai Election Winner Centers on Media Shares
Analysts noted that it’s becoming increasingly likely that lawmakers will cite the legal challenges as a reason for abstaining to vote or proposing to postpone the prime minister selection for the time being.
“In the short run, this development increases the likelihood that Pita will not have enough support in parliament,” said Napon Jatusripitak, visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “In the long run, it raises concerns about the erosion of democratic principles and the potential for widespread protests.”
Wednesday’s fast-paced developments already sparked multiple protests across the country. A mass demonstration has been planned outside of the parliament house on Thursday to pressure senators to back Pita.
The cases against Pita and Move Forward bear uncanny similarity to earlier ones against Thanathorn Juangrungruangkit, leader of Move Forward’s predecessor party. Thanathorn was found guilty by the same court for holding media shares and disqualified as a lawmaker. His party, known as Future Forward, was later dissolved in another case, igniting a mass protest movement in 2020 that led to unprecedented calls for monarchy reforms.
--With assistance from Ian Sayson.
