The Kuomintang, the political party that ruled China and then Taiwan for much of the 20th Century, is at risk of losing its position as the island’s main opposition as a relative newcomer cements its position as the second most popular force in domestic politics, a new poll shows.
The Taiwan People’s Party, established in 2019, has an approval rating of 22.2% compared to 20.4% support for the KMT, traditionally one of Taiwan’s biggest parties, according to a poll released Thursday by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party received an approval rating of 24.6%.
This is the first time that three political parties in Taiwan have received approval ratings of over 20%, the foundation said, calling it a potential “super bombshell” for the 2024 elections.
The survey was conducted June 12-13 and has a margin of error of about three percentage points.
Taiwanese voters will choose their next president and a cohort of lawmakers in January, with the results helping set the course for both cross-strait and US-China relations for years to come.
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The election is shaping up to be a competitive three-way race between the ruling DPP, which is determined to maintain Taiwan’s effective political independence; the KMT, which seeks closer ties with China; and the TPP, which advocates for dialogue with China while presenting a middle-of-the-road alternative to the other two parties.
The polling results represent a “severe crisis” for the KMT, which has lost almost 3 million supporters over the past four years due to factional infighting, according to the foundation.
But the outcome is by no means a win for the DPP. The numbers are “a serious warning” to President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling party, showing it has lost the support of over 3 millions voters since the last presidential election in 2020, the foundation said in a statement.
While the poll is sobering news for the KMT, for now the party remains a more influential force in Taiwan’s politics than the TPP. The KMT governs 14 out of Taiwan’s 22 counties and municipalities. It has 37 lawmakers in the 113-seat legislature, compared to five for the TPP.
Thursday’s results showed the TPP’s highest support rating since its founding four years ago, the foundation said, highlighting that Taiwanese voters are keen for a “meaningful third choice” other than the two traditionally largest parties.
