Prominent interest-rate strategist Zoltan Pozsar, noted for correctly predicting a major upheaval in US repurchase agreement markets that took place in 2019, has departed Credit Suisse Group AG.
Pozsar, who appeared Friday at a Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference without any affiliation noted in the event agenda, has left the Swiss bank, according to a person familiar with the matter who declined to be identified in discussing private information.
The Hungary-born strategist — whose in-depth market analyses have often been shared and discussed even outside the relatively staid confines of interest-rate professionals — appeared at a conference jointly organized by the New York Fed and the Salomon Center of New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business.
It wasn’t immediately clear where Pozsar is heading next. His LinkedIn profile has not been changed and continues to refer to his role at Credit Suisse. A representative for Credit Suisse declined to comment. His departure was also reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter.
Speaking at a session that also featured Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter and Vanguard’s Fiona Greig, Pozsar argued on Friday that the US central bank is unlikely to let anything derail its plan to bring down inflation. He spoke in the wake of a Fed policy decision last week that some saw as signaling a potential pause in the central bank’s unrelenting hikes.
Pozsar’s appearance came almost four months after a Jan. 6 note he published in his role as a strategist at Credit Suisse entitled ‘War and Peace’ that concluded a multi-part series of “dispatches” reflecting on geopolitics and markets.
His silence since then, including to emails sent to the strategist’s account that appeared to bounce back, sparked speculation within the community of short-term interest-rate watchers about his status.
The absence was all the more notable given the turmoil within US banks and global financial markets during March — an area that was typically right in Pozsar’s wheelhouse for commentary. One blog post from March by a writer on macroecomics topics even featured a mock-up of a milk carton with Pozsar’s face on it, a play on a traditional means of publicizing missing persons.
Pozsar landed at Credit Suisse in 2015 after a stint at the US Treasury Department. He began writing research notes about the mechanics of the Fed’s coming interest-rate hikes and in an August 2019 research note, warned of trouble to come in the market for repurchase agreements. His forecast came true a month later, when the interest rate that institutional borrowers had to pay for very short-term loans surged.
Born in Hungary, Pozsar moved to the US in 2002 and began his career at research company Economy.com. In 2008, he went to work at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he became known for creating a map of the financial system that included repo and “shadow” banks outside of traditional lending.
Pozsar has an MBA but not an economics degree, and his analytical approach differs from that of other bank interest-rate strategists. He focuses more on the human behavior inside banks.
Credit Suisse has experienced multiple departures across the globe amid its pending acquisition by UBS Group AG, a deal forced by Swiss regulators to rescue the failing company. Senior bankers have resigned for roles at firms including Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Canada and Mizuho Financial Group Inc.
