Poland’s finance ministry expects the nation’s 2023 budget deficit to stay below its target of 92 billion zloty ($23 billion) thanks to a strong labor market and revived value-added tax revenues.
The gap at the end of last month was 36.42 billion zloty, widening slightly from 34.69 billion zloty at the end of September, the Ministry said. Social security costs are lower than expected as lower unemployment boosts contributions, it added.
The government also saw a rebound of key VAT tax revenues following months of subdued flows when the cost-of-living crisis curtailed consumer purchases.
Proceeds from VAT rose 25% to 25.3 billion zloty in October, the highest monthly level since January. That confirms earlier observations from the nation’s leading retailers pointing at a rebound in shopping. The new report may alleviate concerns over the fiscal situation following recent months that saw a widening of the budget gap.
The pro-EU coalition, which won parliamentary majority in Oct. 15 elections, is weighing whether it can afford costly promises amid uncertainty about budgetary conditions and a record gap planned by the outgoing cabinet for 2024.
