Oil and US equity futures edged higher Monday while major currencies traded within narrow ranges versus the dollar in the wake of a mutiny that challenged Vladimir Putin’s rule in Russia.
Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose about 0.1%. Oil added about 0.7%. The yen fluctuated, the euro strengthened and commodity-linked currencies such as Australia dollar and Norwegian krone were little changed.
Events in Russia were expected to reduce risk taking in markets Monday without triggering excessively sharp reactions given the deal that was brokered to defuse the situation, with Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin halting the advance of his forces toward Moscow after a deal was done to drop criminal mutiny charges against him and his fighters.
Commodity prices will come into sharper focus as the trading session unfolds, with much attention on oil, grains, natural gas and traditional haven assets such as gold.
The turmoil in Russia follows a tough week for investors that saw US stocks notch the worst week since March as anxiety rose that central banks would have to ratchet interest rates higher to tamp down inflation. Bonds rallied on bets that excessive tightening will bring on sharp economic downturns.
“Even though the Prigozhin mutiny may not cause larger market movements directly, this could quickly change depending on how the political situation in Russia unfolds in coming months,” Erik Meyersson, chief emerging-markets strategist at SEB AB, said in a note. “Markets will likely become more sensitive to internal political matters in Russia, as events or developments that may before the Prigozhin mutiny been shrugged off could now be given a higher importance.”
The S&P 500 Index ended the shortened holiday week 1.4% lower while the Nasdaq 100 benchmark fell 1.3% as investors took profits from the year’s winning technology names. Chipmakers Marvell Technology Inc. and GlobalFoundries Inc. were among Friday’s laggards while drops in Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. weighed on the gauges.
The second-quarter stock rally — fueled by the frenzy for growth-oriented artificial intelligence stocks — is fraying under the threat of more rate hikes and fears that the full economic impact of aggressive central bank policy has yet to be felt.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened the mood last week when he said the US may need one or two more rate increases in 2023. Other Fed commentators pushed back against investor hopes for a rate cut this year: “I’d be comfortable with the information I have today, staying right where we are and just staying here through the rest of this year and long into next year,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said at an event Friday.
Meanwhile, the US manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 46.3 in June from 48.4 the prior period, the lowest reading since December.
Economic data from Germany and France ignited fears of a downturn in Europe, spurring Treasuries to take part in a global bond market rally as investors sought safe havens.
US Treasuries yields fell Friday, some by as much as 10 basis points. The inverted spread between the two- and 10-year bond widened to more than 1% — such inversions are considered a recessionary signal.
Concern about the economic outlook was reflected in a rotation into bonds and out of stocks in weekly flow data. Investors yanked $5 billion from global equity funds in the week through Wednesday and added $5.4 billion to bonds.
Key events this week:
- US new home sales, durable goods, Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, Tuesday
- China industrial profits, Wednesday
- US wholesale inventories, goods trade balance, Wednesday
- Federal Reserve to unveil results of annual banking industry stress test, Wednesday
- Policy panel with ECB’s Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda and BOE’s Andrew Bailey at ECB forum in Sintra, Wednesday
- Sweden rate decision, Thursday
- US GDP, initial jobless claims, Thursday
- Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic speaks on the US economic outlook at event in Dublin, Thursday
- China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Friday
- Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Friday
- Japan unemployment, industrial production, Tokyo CPI, Friday
- US personal income and spending, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 7:12 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% Friday
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1% Friday
- Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.4%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell 0.2%
- Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.6%
Currencies
- The euro was little changed at $1.0902
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.62 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2148 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6679
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $30,441.94
- Ether was little changed at $1,894.66
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.73% on Friday
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $69.54 a barrel
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Carly Wanna, Isabelle Lee and Matthew Burgess.
