Ecuador appears headed toward a run-off election in October between socialist candidate Luisa Gonzalez and either entrepreneur Daniel Noboa or businessman Jan Topic, providing contrasting visions for how to bring prosperity to a violence-torn country.
Gonzalez was ahead by nearly 10 percentage points in two exit polls released ahead of official data, topping the field of eight candidates from across the political spectrum but falling short of the support level needed to win outright.
A survey by Corpmontpubli showed her with 32.8% compared to 20.5% for Noboa, while an Estratega exit poll had the pair at 33.6% and 23.8% respectively. Topic was in third place in both surveys.
The snap election was triggered by President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to close congress in late May amid an impeachment attempt led by the Citizen Revolution party, for which Gonzalez held a seat. The run-off is set for Oct. 15 if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, or gets 40% and leads by more than 10 percentage points over the rest of the pack.
Violence and lawlessness were already major issues in the unique short campaign, but they became the focus after the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio, gunned down exiting an event in Quito Aug. 9. A surge in homicides and political violence in the South American nation has made it one of the most dangerous in the world. All candidates have pledged to tackle crime.
Gonzalez, a former aide to former President Rafael Correa, ran on a platform of nostalgia for the record decade he was in power, during which high oil prices and borrowing from China fueled a popular surge in government spending. For the third straight time since 2016, Correismo, as the free-spending but socially conservative movement of Gonzalez’s mentor is known, failed to win support beyond its core base and win the election in the first round.
