Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said the chance of a US recession fell meaningfully compared with a year ago, Hong Kong Economic Journal reported Monday, citing an interview with the Wall Street executive.
He repeated his assessment early this year of improved odds of a soft landing for the economy. The bank’s economists in September cut their estimate of the chances of a US recession to 15%, down from 20% previously, on cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market. The forecast was well below a Bloomberg consensus of 60%.
Read: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Diverge on Fed Rate-Cut Forecasts
Solomon’s comments come as the US economy has remained steadfast in the face of high prices and a rapid run-up in borrowing costs, repeatedly outshining forecasters’ expectations and tempering recession fears.
The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter on a burst of consumer spending, which will be tested in coming months.
Solomon forecast inflation to remain sticky, according to the report. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates this year but may do so once or twice next year, Solomon said.
Read: Why a US Recession Is Still More Likely Than a Soft Landing
At a Hong Kong financial summit last week, Solomon said he expected the environment for capital markets activities to improve starting next year, although big interest rate moves and Middle East conflicts are weighing confidence.
Goldman Sachs forecasts the US economy to grow 2.1% in 2024 and outpace other major developed markets, according to a research report it published last week.
--With assistance from Cathy Chan.
