Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects more interest-rate hikes in the Philippines and Indonesia by year-end, revising its forecast for an extended pause in the two Southeast Asian countries.
Resurgent currency and inflationary pressures could force the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and Bank Indonesia to take their policy rates higher in their November meetings — or even earlier in the Philippines’ case if it makes an off-cycle move, Goldman economists wrote in a Wednesday note. The BSP announced a briefing at 3 p.m. local time on Thursday, without saying what the topic is.
The Philippines is seen raising its policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.75%, likely via quarter-point moves each in November and December, it said. Goldman said Indonesia will likely follow up its surprise rate hike last week with another 25-basis point move, taking the key rate to 6.25% by the end of 2023, the highest level since 2016 when the benchmark was introduced.
Asian central banks face increasing pressure to keep monetary policy tight as the dollar’s strength pummels the region’s currencies. Indonesia’s rupiah slid about 3% in the past month to become the worst performer in Asia, while in the Philippines, the peso is trading near 57 per dollar, a level that central bank signaled it is defending.
As high energy prices drive up electricity and transport costs, returning headline inflation within the BSP’s 2%-4% target band by year-end is “unlikely,” the analysts said. Higher inflation expectations are also getting entrenched, based on consumer sentiment surveys, according to Goldman.
The rupiah will remain under pressure in the near term, prompting more “preemptive” action from policymakers especially as other tools to lure dollars show “limited impact,” it said.
“In the near term, the significant narrowing in rate differentials vis-à-vis the US and a retracement in key commodity prices over the past year (coal and palm oil, in particular) are eroding external buffers, and could continue to make domestic policy choices challenging in the coming months,” it said on Indonesia.
Central banks in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore will likely be on hold for the rest of the year, Goldman said.
