By Gabriel Araujo
SAO PAULO Brazilian planemaker Embraer is on track to meet its full-year outlook for 2023, analysts said, after deliveries in the second quarter increased 47% compared to a year earlier.
Last week, Embraer reported 47 aircraft deliveries in the period, including 17 commercial and 30 executive jets, which analysts considered positive as the company looks to mitigate supply chain disruptions that delayed deliveries in recent years.
"The results were good overall, showing a significant improvement from the seasonally weaker first quarter," Itau BBA analysts led by Daniel Gasparete said.
The Brazilian firm, the world's third-largest planemaker after Airbus and Boeing, expects deliveries in 2023 to jump as much as 25.8% to 200 jets, considering both its commercial and executive aviation units.
That would represent the highest since 2017, when the company delivered 210 airplanes. If skewed to the lower-end guidance of 185 jets, it would at least place it back near pre-pandemic levels of 2019, when deliveries totaled 198 aircraft.
The positive quarterly figures might help offset some pressure after Embraer's performance at the Paris Airshow in June, when investors were left disappointed by weaker-than-expected order flow.
Shares of the company slipped roughly 18% in the week immediately after the airshow and have yet to recover those losses, although the stock is still up over 20% year-to-date.
"Deliveries were above expectation, implying upside risk to second-quarter revenues and free cash flow," JPMorgan said, noting it had estimated 14 commercial jet and 26 business jet deliveries for the second quarter.
Embraer's order backlog ended the quarter at $17.3 billion, nearly flat when compared with the previous three-month period.
Itau BBA said that maintaining the backlog stable despite the acceleration in deliveries suggested a good inflow of orders, but others were more skeptical.
"The backlog moved sideways despite the Paris Airshow," said Santander analysts, which recommend Embraer shares as "buy" and consider the company's 2023 targets "feasible" after the fresh deliveries report.
"Paris did not turn out to be the hoped-for trigger for backlog expansion. (But) on the positive side, Embraer could announce new orders in the upcoming months reflecting discussions that started during the airshow."
Gustavo Teixeira, head of sales in Latin America, told Reuters that business jet demand has leveled off after backlogs surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Embraer's book-to-bill ratio currently sitting at more than 2.5.
Embraer will report its full second-quarter results on Aug. 14.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Brad Haynes and Lisa Shumaker)
