European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said that while another interest-rate increase next month is all but assured, the outcome of the following meeting remains unclear and will be determined by economic data arriving in the interim.
Guindos told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday that underlying inflation pressures may prove to be more stubborn than currently expected, with a strong summer tourist season likely to drive services costs higher.
“I think July is a fait accompli,” Guindos said in Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB is holding its annual retreat. “In September, I think that it’s open.”
The debate among ECB officials over when to pause their unprecedented run of rate hikes is heating up. Some have signaled that a good time to take stock could be after July’s planned move, though others — with an eye on sticky core inflation — say more tightening may be needed in the fall.
It’s unlikely that the ECB will be able to declare any time soon “with full confidence” that the peak in rates has been reached, President Christine Lagarde told attendees at Sintra Tuesday. She described a “second phase of the inflation process” where workers are seeking a “catch-up” in wages to recover lost income.
The situation around consumer prices will become clearer this week, as Italy kicks off a slew of data today that culminates with June’s reading for the euro zone on Friday.
It’s looking like a mixed bag: While headline inflation is seen abating in the 20-nation bloc, the underlying measure probably ticked higher. On the national level, statistical effects will quicken German price gains, but Spain’s number may fall below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time in more than two years.
On the economic-growth side, Guindos said the slowdown witnessed Europe of late is likely to continue in the second half of 2023.
“I think some of these downside risks have started to materialize and are becoming much more visible,” he said. “The data that we are receiving about growth are not very good.”
--With assistance from Joao Lima, Alexander Weber and Jana Randow.
