Analysts at Barclays Plc are turning more upbeat on the economic outlook for Turkey and Russia, where “active policy support” is helping shore up growth.
The British bank sharply lifted its 2023 forecast for Turkey’s gross domestic product to an expansion of 2.9% from 1.2% previously, according to a report by analysts including Brahim Razgallah and Zalina Alborova. For Russia, Barclays raised its GDP growth estimate to 1.7% this year.
The improvement for Turkey follows “stronger growth performance in the first half of 2023 due mainly to election-related policies and more-limited policy tightening in the post-election environment compared to our expectations,” the analysts said.
Given they anticipate “a similar policy stance for next year,” the bank’s economists also revised their Turkish growth forecast for 2024 to 1.6% from 0.5%, “with risks skewed to the upside this year and to the downside in 2024.”
In Russia, fiscal stimulus and lending growth are leading to “a faster-than-expected economic recovery, driven largely by domestic demand,” the Barclays analysts said.
“The recent emergency rate hike to 12%, risks of further tightening, new sanctions and logistic difficulties pose downside risks for growth in the near term,” they said.
