Asian shares are set to follow a slump in their US peers after employment data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated and pushed up Treasury yields to new multi-year highs.
Futures for equity benchmarks in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong all pointed to losses. The S&P 500 fell to a four-month low Tuesday while yields on US 10- and 30-year debt climbed to the highest since 2007 after job openings unexpectedly increased. A House vote that toppled Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to further fuel uncertainty after Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, rose to the highest since May.
Climbing Treasury yields pushed Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar to a 10-month high. The yen initially dropped to the weakest level in a year against the greenback before it rallied amid speculation Japanese officials were acting to slow its slide. An official at Japan’s Ministry of Finance declined to comment.
US markets tumbled after the number of available job openings rose to 9.61 million in August from less than 9 million in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. The report drove swaps traders to increase wagers on the Fed raising rates in December to greater than 50%.
Read more: US Job Openings Top All Forecasts as White-Collar Positions Jump
Investors have yet to fully embrace the Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative and are instead following “fickle market momentum,” said Luke Templeman, an analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “Small catalysts are causing an outsized number to attempt to preempt market moves.”
The next key data point for the labor market will be the monthly payrolls print on Friday.
“Unless, the NFP report comes in lower than expected, Wall Street will likely start to fully price in at least one more Fed rate hike before the end of the year,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda.
Read more: Credit Markets Wobble as Fed Speak, Data Fan Rate-Hike Angst
Yields on US 30-year bonds rose as much as 16 basis points to 4.95%. Wall Street has been speculating rates on longer maturities will hit 5%. The increase in yields stoked anxiety in the credit market, where at least two issuers called off sales Tuesday.
This week’s Treasury selloff came after US lawmakers managed to avert a government shutdown, prompting traders to increase bets the Fed will raise rates this year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic beat the “higher-for-longer” drum Tuesday, saying the central bank needed to keep rates elevated “for a long time.” He forecast a single rate cut for 2024, toward year-end.
Comments from other Fed policymakers were also hawkish, with Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester saying on Monday that one more rate hike was likely needed and Governor Michelle Bowman urging multiple increases.
West Texas Intermediate crude recovered from an early drop to head back toward $90 a barrel while gold fell for a seventh day on Tuesday, its longest streak of declines since November 2018.
Key events this week:
- China has week-long holiday
- New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
- Eurozone services and composite PMIs, Wednesday
- ECB President Christine Lagarde gives welcome address at conference, Wednesday
- US ISM services index, Wednesday
- France industrial production, Thursday
- BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, Riksbank First Deputy Governor Anna Breman participate at panel discussion, Thursday
- US trade, initial jobless claims, Thursday
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks at the Economic Club of New York, Thursday
- Germany factory orders, Friday
- US unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 7:13 a.m. Tokyo time. The S&P 500 fell 1.4%
- Hang Seng futures fell 0.2%
- S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 0.5%
- Nikkei 225 futures fell 1.6%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
- The euro was little changed at $1.0468
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.99 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3212 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $27,364.38
- Ether fell 0.3% to $1,652.73
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 4.80%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.63%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $89.44 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
--With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.
